{"id":32427,"date":"2022-09-10T16:09:10","date_gmt":"2022-09-10T21:09:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biblia.work\/sermons\/hot-hands-cold-churches-christianity-in-the-age-of-analytics\/"},"modified":"2022-09-10T16:09:10","modified_gmt":"2022-09-10T21:09:10","slug":"hot-hands-cold-churches-christianity-in-the-age-of-analytics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biblia.work\/sermons\/hot-hands-cold-churches-christianity-in-the-age-of-analytics\/","title":{"rendered":"Hot Hands & Cold Churches: Christianity in the Age of Analytics"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Aaron Earls<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2018 sports, analytics is king. Minute pieces of data drive multi-billion-dollar decisions. But for the church, Jesus is King. And the Holy Spirit should guide eternal decisions.<\/p>\n

Can churches be data-driven and Spirit-led?<\/h3>\n

Christian researchers and many pastors have discovered that data and research can play an important part in following the Spirit. Churches already are using data, often without realizing. If you know how many people attended your worship service last Sunday, you have a piece of data about your church.<\/p>\n

But as more data about communities and individuals becomes available, how do churches sift through piles of numbers to find the right information to help them make wise decisions?<\/p>\n

Getting hot<\/h3>\n

Everyone knew basketball players could \u201cget hot\u201d and begin making more shots. The beloved classic arcade game NBA Jam<\/em> even had the announcer yell, \u201cHe\u2019s on fire!\u201d after a player made three shots in a row. But then a 1985 sports analytics paper seemed to douse those flames.<\/p>\n

The initial research, \u201cThe Hot Hand in Basketball: On Misperception of Random Sequences,\u201d claimed an NBA player\u2019s perception of being \u201chot\u201d did not predict a hit or miss on the next shot. In other words, the raw numbers said hitting a previous shot had no bearing on the likelihood of making the next one.<\/p>\n

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However, thanks to advancements in data tracking, a 2014 study found NBA players who were shooting well often attempted more difficult shots and faced tougher defense. When accounting for those variables, the researchers found a \u201csmall yet significant hot-hand effect.\u201d NBA Jam<\/em> was right after all.<\/p>\n

Similarly, researchers say there may be things churches aren\u2019t accounting for because they simply aren\u2019t using all the available information.<\/p>\n

\u201cI have seen churches celebrate the fact they have had 25 percent of people attend a church who have never attended before,\u201d says Matt Engel, research fellow with Leadership Network.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut when they looked at the next step in the data\u2014did those new attendees come back?\u2014the answer was no.\u201d<\/p>\n

Virtually every church tracks bodies, budgets, and baptisms. \u201cThe best next step,\u201d says Eric Swanson, director of engagement and big data initiatives at Leadership Network, \u201cis to begin combining different data points in order to get insights. How do giving, baptisms, and attendance compare from this time last year? Are trends going up, down, or are they flat?\u201d<\/p>\n

In addition to tracking trends in their churches, leaders can evaluate their communities to better understand those they are trying to reach.<\/p>\n

\u201cPastors can learn so much more about the city and their people and then begin to act on that data to increase what is going well and decrease what is going bad,\u201d says Swanson.<\/p>\n

Research helps church leaders understand the best strategy for fulfilling the Great Commission, according to Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s less about if and more about how,\u201d says McConnell. \u201cResearch can direct churches to the most effective means of reaching the people around them with the gospel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Numerous free demographic research reports are available. Churches can use websites such as census.gov and city-data.com to explore the makeup of their city. Other websites, such as TheARDA.com from the Association of Religion Data Archives, provide useful information about the spiritual demographics of American counties. Entities of denominations, such as the North American Mission Board of the Southern Baptist Convention, often have research available to churches upon request.<\/p>\n

Growing cold<\/h3>\n

The idea of using data and research strikes many pastors as antithetical to what Scripture teaches. Paul told the church at Corinth to \u201cwalk by faith, not by sight.\u201d Is being informed by data the opposite of that? Paul commanded believers at Ephesus to \u201cbe filled by the Spirit.\u201d Are we in danger of being filled with numbers, instead of the Spirit, if we evaluate research before making a decision?<\/p>\n

A broader look at the Bible gives us a different perspective.<\/p>\n

In some ways, our spiritual understanding can be an additional data point. Swanson points to Hebrews 11:27 saying Moses left Egypt \u201cnot being afraid of the king\u2019s anger, for Moses persevered as one who sees him who is invisible.\u201d Knowledge of God and His character allowed Moses to make what seemed to be a dangerous decision.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Caleb and Joshua accounted for God\u2019s promise when they suggested the Israelites go into the Promised Land, while the others made their choices based on the size and strength of the inhabitants.<\/p>\n

For Swanson, one of the most applicable biblical examples is Nehemiah. When his brother and other men from Judah returned to the Babylonian city of Susa, Nehemiah asked them for two pieces of data: How are the people? And how is Jerusalem?<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe answers changed his life because he began acting upon the data he received,\u201d says Swanson. \u201cHe let the data emotionally touch him.\u201d<\/p>\n

This motivated Nehemiah to go to Jerusalem to do something about the information he was given. He spent the first half of the biblical book rebuilding the broken city and the second half rebuilding the broken people.<\/p>\n

\u201cNehemiah figured out a way for data to be actionable,\u201d says Swanson. \u201cThe bottom line is pastors and Christian leaders should figure out what is most important to them, then figure out a way to measure it.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Christopher Keefer and First Baptist Church of Poolville, Texas, what was most important to them was reaching their community. They found some data that opened their eyes to the needs around them\u2014and opened doors for the gospel.<\/p>\n

Making the shot<\/h3>\n

As a bivocational pastor and a public school teacher, Keefer could see the community around the church was changing, but the 140-year-old congregation didn\u2019t quite grasp what was happening outside its walls.<\/p>\n

He says the church had ceased to reach out to its immediate community and needed to rediscover its mission field. So his first step was gathering data to show his church exactly what was happening.<\/p>\n

Keefer worked with his local Baptist association to get demographic data and develop a profile of those living within a two-mile radius of the church. Because of his teaching background, he knew how to obtain the Texas Education Agency\u2019s report on Poolville Elementary School, directly across the street from the church. The church completed a survey to discover the needs of local people. He also partnered with the Percept Group, a ministry research firm, to produce a \u201cministry area profile\u201d for his community.<\/p>\n

Members of the church had not come to grips with what was happening around them. \u201cBefore the research, they spoke of the community like nothing had happened,\u201d Keefer says. \u201cSo many people mentioned how the community did things back in the 1950s and \u201960s.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the church members actually lived in neighboring cities, leaving a \u201cdoughnut hole\u201d around the church building where only one member lived, according to Keefer.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis project and research turned their eyes back to the community they worship in,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

First Poolville realized a growing number of Hispanic families lived nearby. More than 6 in 10 students at the school were classified as \u201ceconomically disadvantaged.\u201d Parents often work in surrounding areas and don\u2019t get home until well after dark, Keefer says.<\/p>\n

The data showed the need, but the church relied on the Holy Spirit to help understand how to meet that need. Keefer says the research was a \u201cprompter\u201d for the congregation, but it was the many hours of prayer and the unity within the church during the discussion and planning that demonstrated the Holy Spirit\u2019s leading.<\/p>\n

The congregation of fewer than 30 people decided to start a weekly after-school program for kids. The physical needs of the children are met. They are fed, given more food for home, and provided with school supplies. The kids often make a craft to give as a gift to their parents or other family members. They also participate in a Bible study.<\/p>\n

In the small community, nine children have attended the church\u2019s Kids\u2019 Club. Five of those are new to the church, four of whom are unchurched.<\/p>\n

Research didn\u2019t make that happen. But research gave Keefer and First Poolville the information needed to make a wise choice.<\/p>\n

Data-informed, but Spirit-led<\/h3>\n

\u201cNothing in Scripture says we are to be irrational,\u201d says McConnell, \u201cor that we shouldn\u2019t care about reality. Jesus knew about the reality around Him. He recognized the need and met it. That\u2019s what research best enables us to do.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the church leader must always be ready to \u201cwalk away from the rational to follow the Holy Spirit,\u201d McConnell says. The Spirit\u2019s leadership should always be the determining factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t put our trust in surveys,\u201d says McConnell, \u201cbut in our Savior.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Christian researchers, it\u2019s not about following the numbers at any cost. It\u2019s about using data to make decisions\u2014taking information into consideration, and then following the leadership of the Holy Spirit.<\/p>\n

The data-informed, Spirit-led congregation can have even more confidence than the basketball player who feels he can\u2019t miss. That church might even be on fire.<\/p>\n

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Aaron Earls<\/h2>\n

@WardrobeDoor<\/p>\n

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Aaron is a writer for LifewayResearch.com.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n