{"id":32647,"date":"2022-09-10T16:17:45","date_gmt":"2022-09-10T21:17:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.biblia.work\/sermons\/false-facts-why-pastors-love-bad-stats\/"},"modified":"2022-09-10T16:17:45","modified_gmt":"2022-09-10T21:17:45","slug":"false-facts-why-pastors-love-bad-stats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.biblia.work\/sermons\/false-facts-why-pastors-love-bad-stats\/","title":{"rendered":"False Facts: Why Pastors Love Bad Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Bob Smietana<\/em><\/p>\n

One of the dangers of being a reporter who goes to church is that you know when the preacher is wrong. Not wrong in theology. Wrong in facts.<\/p>\n

Like this one, which came halfway through a recent sermon on marriage. Things are scary out there, the preacher told us. And there\u2019s no difference between people sitting in these pews and everyone else when it comes to divorce.<\/p>\n

It made a great sermon illustration. Only it\u2019s not true, says Bradley Wright, a sociologist at the University of Connecticut and author of \u201cChristians Are Hate-Filled Hypocrites … and Other Lies You\u2019ve Been Told.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wright looked at marriage statistics from the General Social Survey (GSS), a national random survey of Americans, taken since the 1970s. Half of the \u201cNones\u201d\u2014people who claim no religious identity\u2014were divorced.<\/p>\n

Only 42 percent of self-identified Christians\u2014and members of other faiths\u2014were divorced. Catholics (35 percent) were least likely to divorce, followed by Mainline Protestants (41 percent) and evangelicals (46 percent).<\/p>\n

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Believers who show up to church every week were even less likely to divorce. Wright, who has been writing about faith and divorce rates since 2006, found that only about a third of evangelicals (34 percent) and Mainline Protestants (32 percent) and a quarter of Catholics (23 percent) who go to church are divorced.<\/p>\n

Still the myth that churchgoers get divorced at the same rate as everyone else persists. Wright thinks we pay more attention to bad news than to good news.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe pay a lot more attention to things that are dangerous,\u201d he said. \u201cIf I\u2019m driving down the road, I can pass 200 parked cars and not notice them. But if I see an accident\u2014I will stop and look.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mark Regnerus, a sociologist at the University of Texas in Austin, says something called \u201cconfirmation bias\u201d might be at work. In other words, people like statistics that reinforce their beliefs. If people are fearful that marriages are in trouble, he said, they\u2019ll tend to believe statistics that confirm those fears. Even if those statistics aren\u2019t exactly right.<\/p>\n

Regnerus said using bad statistics about marriage is appealing\u2014because bad news can motivate people to action. But it can also undermine the credibility of a pastor\u2019s message.<\/p>\n

\u201cI am glad that pastors want to strengthen marriages,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd bad news can be galvanizing. \u2026 But we trust our pastors to tell us the truth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Are Christians really bad tippers?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Marriage isn\u2019t the only subject where the facts don\u2019t match up to perceptions about Christians. That\u2019s also the case when it comes to tipping and believers.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, a trip out to eat turned into a nightmare for the Rev. Alois Bell of the World Deliverance Ministries Church in Granite City, Ill. Bell and a large group of friends went to Applebee’s. Following company policy, their server, Chelsea Welch, added an automatic tip to the bills.<\/p>\n

Bell was not pleased. \u201cI give God 10%,\u201d Bell wrote on the bill. \u201cWhy do you get 18?\u201d<\/p>\n

Welch posted the bill on Facebook and it went viral. She eventually was fired, while Bell apologized (indicating she\u2019d left a cash tip) after her note made headline news.<\/p>\n

Turns out Welsh isn\u2019t the only server to have a bad run in with church folks. Karen Swallow Prior, an English professor at Liberty University, worked her way through college as a waitress. Christians were notorious for being bad tippers, she wrote in a piece for Christianity Today<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy fellow servers called them the \u2018Holy Rollers,\u2019\u201d she wrote. \u201cKnowing there would be little, if any, tip left at the end of their meal, the servers saw the Christians\u2019 robust attempts at \u2018friendliness\u2019 instead as pushy and arrogant. The memories still pain me now.\u201d<\/p>\n

But a study from Michael Lynn of Cornell University and Benjamin Katz of HCD Research, showed that, overall, Christians are pretty good tippers. Their online survey of 1,068 Americans found that the average Christian tipped 17 percent for good service. Only 13 percent of Christians left a smaller tip for good service.<\/p>\n

The problem is that there are a lot Christians out there. And since we tend to remember bad news, a few bad tippers give all the other Christians a bad name.<\/p>\n

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The sky is falling phenomenon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Statistics about the future of the church also give pastors and other church leaders a hard time.<\/p>\n

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Like this one: \u201c94 percent of Christian young people leave the church never to return,\u201d which was used to promote a major Christian conference several years ago. It\u2019s partly true; young people do drop out of church.<\/p>\n

A 2009 Lifeway Research study of 1,000 young Protestants found that 7 out of 10 did drop out of church for a time after high school.<\/p>\n

A few more details: the students surveyed had all attended church for at least a year in high school. Most dropped out because of a life change\u2014such as going to college\u2014and just over a third had come back to church by age 30.<\/p>\n

The idea of anyone dropping out of church is a concern. But there\u2019s no sign young people are forsaking the church in droves.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the best bad statistic is this one, which also was used recently by a megachurch pastor to promote a Christian conference: \u201cThere are more left-handed people, more Texans, and more pet cats than evangelicals in America.\u201d<\/p>\n

This pastor is apparently quite concerned that the evangelical church is being overrun by southpaw kittens from the Lone Star state. This claim, however, isn\u2019t quite true. There are more cats (and dogs) than evangelicals in the U.S. But not Texans or southpaws.<\/p>\n

While there are about 95 million cats in the U.S., according to the Humane Society, there are between 50 million (Religious Congregations & Membership Study, 2010) and 75 million evangelicals (Pew Research).<\/p>\n

That\u2019s more than the estimated number of southpaws\u2014between 30 and 45 million Americans\u2014and Texans (26.6 million, according to the U.S. Census). Going one for three might be good in baseball. But it\u2019s bad for preachers.<\/p>\n

Bad statistics persist because they work\u2014at least in the short term. They help sell books and tickets to conferences, make great sermon illustrations, and get people in church fired up.<\/p>\n

The problem, says Ed Stetzer, president of Lifeway Research, is that bad statistics don\u2019t solve real problems. It\u2019s difficult to solve a problem when you don\u2019t understand it, says Stetzer.<\/p>\n

Too many bad statistics can also undermine a leader\u2019s credibility. Get too many facts wrong and it\u2019s harder for people to trust you.<\/p>\n

Setting the record straight<\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhaps it\u2019s time for preachers\u2014and conference speakers\u2014to be a little more wise when it comes to statistics. Stetzer says Christians should view all statistics with healthy skepticism.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s especially true if a statistic is found in an advertisement. Ads, says Stetzer, are used to sell things. They\u2019re not particularly concerned with getting the facts right.<\/p>\n

Also, beware any statistic that can\u2019t be verified. \u201cAsk, how do you know that?\u201d says Stetzer. \u201cIf you can\u2019t think of a way to verify a statistic, it\u2019s probably not true.\u201d<\/p>\n

He also says to be wary of stats that don\u2019t match reality. \u201cIt\u2019s okay to apply your own censor to say this doesn\u2019t make sense,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s important to realize that all research is imperfect and context matters. Researchers don\u2019t have unlimited resources. They can\u2019t interview or poll everyone. Instead they interview a representative sample of people, asking a few questions.<\/p>\n

So go to the source. Find out who did the research, how many people they interviewed and what specific questions were asked, before assuming the research is valid.<\/p>\n

For example, a poll from professional researchers using a large sample will likely be more reliable than an informal poll taken by a professor of the students in class.<\/p>\n

Finally, don\u2019t look at only one study. \u201cTo understand the whole picture, responsible researchers look at various studies, their methodologies, and their results,\u201d Stetzer wrote in a 2010 story about bad statistics for Christianity Today<\/em>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe reach bad conclusions when we latch onto one finding of one study, drag it out of context, and proclaim it from the rooftops without knowing whether our interpretation is justified.\u201d<\/p>\n

Facts are our friends, as Stetzer often says. Just make sure the facts are true.<\/p>\n

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Bob Smietana<\/h2>\n

@bobsmietana<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Bob is the former senior writer for Lifeway Research. In September 2018, he joined Religion News Service, where he currently serves as a national writer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n