Gambler’s Fallacy
The Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken notion that repetition changes the odds. If you flip a coin five times, always getting tails, there’s still a 50–50 chance that you’ll get tails on your next flip. You can’t say— “Tails has come up five times in a row, so now it’s ‘time’ that heads comes up.”
Gambler’s Anonymous
Resources
• God in the Dock, C. S. Lewis, p. 59.
• The Moral Catastrophe, David Hocking, Harvest House, 1990, pp. 227ff
Incurable Optimists
Human beings are incurable optimists. They believe they have a pretty good chance to win a lottery, but that there is hardly any chance of getting killed in a traffic accident.
Bits & Pieces, May 26, 1994, p. 9
Quotes
• Horse sense is what keeps horses from betting on what people will do. – Oscar Wilde
• There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it, and when he can. – Mark Twain
• It may be that the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong—but that’s the way to bet. – Damon Runyon
Sources unknown
Lottery Tickets
• Average number of dollars, per capita, spent on lottery tickets each year, in the top ten lottery states: $135.
Gaming & Wagering Business, reported in American Demographics, 2/89
Good Baptists Don’t Gamble
My grandmother, a staunch Southern Baptist, had marched me off to Sunday school and church regularly. So when I switched to the Episcopal church after marriage, she challenged me: “What’s wrong with the Baptist Church, son?”
“Well,” I explained, “Carole and I flipped a coin to see if we would go to her church or mine, and I lost.”
“Serves you right,” said my grandmother. “Good Baptists don’t gamble.”
J. E. Bedenbaugh